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Democrats frequently refer to Republicans as "extremists" and even "anti-American" for the alleged radicalness of their views. Given the thumping the donkey party took in the recent election, it's worth reexamining just how "extreme" the victors really are. It turns out it's Democrats who moved away from the mainstream of American thought, leaving Republicans closer to the center and more relatable to voters. While that doesn't fully explain the election outcome, it's an important part of what happened.

In 2021, evolutionary biologist Colin Wright shared a cartoon showing him as a center-left liberal on the political spectrum circa 2008. In the following years, those to his left sprinted farther left, dragging the center with them. Without moving, Wright found himself on the right. The cartoon struck a chord and was widely shared. According to John Burn-Murdoch of the Financial Times, it has a lot of truth to it.

"Data shows Democrats taking a sharp turn leftward on social issues over the past decade. This has distanced them from the median voter, just as Wright's cartoon depicted," he wrote in a recent analysis. "We see this not only in Democratic voters' self-reported ideology, but in their views on issues including immigration and whether or not minorities need extra help to succeed in society."

Burn-Murdoch cites research by the Data for Progress think tank finding that "political elites are more supportive of a wide array of progressive policies than the average likely voter." The term "political elites," researchers specified, refers to "those who hold significant authoritative roles in government, or those outside government whose occupations position them to influence those inside government." Their ranks include government bureaucrats, media pundits, and military officers. The phenomenon is particularly pronounced among Democratic elites, nudging the party left of even rank-and-file Democrats.

"This can create situations where policies and rhetoric alienate the very groups they're aimed at," notes Burn-Murdoch. He points to policing, affirmative action, and immigration as areas where Democrats moved far from the median voter. Americans picked up on the shift. "US voters also perceive the Democrats as having moved much further left than the Republicans have shifted right in recent years," he added.

In fact, a 2023 Morning Consult poll found "by a 9-point margin, voters also see the Democratic Party as more ideologically extreme than the GOP."

Burn-Murdoch isn't the first political commentator to point out that the party that most often throws around words like "extremist" is itself rather removed from the beliefs of the median voter.

In June, Gallup noted that, while "Americans have become significantly more likely to identify as liberal in their views on social issues" and slightly more liberal on economics, the movement is all one-sided. "Both trends toward more liberal views than in the past are driven by U.S. Democrats; neither Republicans nor independents have become more liberal in their views over time."

In 2004, 39 percent of Democrats identified as "liberal/very liberal" on social issues, rising to 69 percent in 2024; on the same topic, Republicans moved from 64 percent identifying as "conservative/very conservative" in 2004 to 74 percent this year. On economic issues, 28 percent of Democrats identified as "liberal/very liberal" in 2004 compared to 49 percent in 2024. Sixty-four percent of Republicans called themselves "conservative/very conservative" on economics in 2004, with 82 percent claiming that description this year. Independents didn't budge during that time, leaning moderate.

That pulls the center left, but it leaves many Americans de facto closer to the GOP than to Democrats.

Three years ago, progressive blogger Kevin Drum crunched the data on support for specific issues and concluded that, while Republicans had shifted to the right, Democrats had gone much further left. "Progressives have been bragging publicly about pushing the Democratic Party leftward since at least 2004—and they've succeeded," he wrote.

On issues including immigration, abortion, same-sex marriage, guns, and taxes, he found Democrats moving strongly left over the years. Republicans shifted a bit more conservative or, in the case of same-sex marriage, became more liberal.

While Drum favors more left-wing positions, he conceded, "over the past two decades Democrats have moved left far more than Republicans have moved right….The truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary."

That said, this ideological drift is not the full explanation for the election outcome. As Burn-Murdoch of the Financial Times emphasizes, "the main reason the Democrats lost the US election is that inflation kills political incumbents." Arguably, though, inflation and the resulting hike in the cost of living (it takes more than $120 now to purchase what $100 bought in January 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics) is largely a result of big-spending policies favored by the left. True, Republican Donald Trump's first presidential term was no model of fiscal restraint; he sent the national debt soaring. But that albatross hangs around the necks of Democrats who loudly embrace high spending as preferred policy.

Also, "scary" isn't just found in ideological positions, but in conduct. In recent years, the worst elements among Democrats gained a reputation for muzzling dissidents on social media, shouting down dissent, and even denying financial services to those considered politically or morally suspect. Everybody can play at cancel culture, but it's now associated in the public mind with Democrats and the left.

Additionally, let's note that "extreme" isn't a synonym for bad and "mainstream" doesn't mean the same thing as good. It's possible for political positions to be far removed from the center of gravity of public opinion, but also to be correct. It's also possible for the majority to be wrong about important issues.

But political movements that sharply veer from most voters without making serious efforts to persuade them—that instead rely on censoring or shaming those who disagree—risk losing badly at the voting booth. That's especially true when they've enacted policies that immiserate and offend much of the population. In retrospect, it may be surprising that Democrats did so well as they did.

"The evidence all points in one direction," Burn-Murdoch concluded. "America's moderate voters have not deserted the Democrats; the party has pushed them away."

They may argue that they're correct on policy, but Democrats are more extreme than the public.

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Thank you for reading.

 - J.D.

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